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Long lines at gas pump unlikely, but Middle East crisis could disrupt oil supplies_我的网站

一 |     WASHINGTON -- Fifty years after the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the current crisis in the Middle East has the potential to disrupt global oil supplies and push prices higher. But don't expect a repeat of the catastrophic price hikes and long lines at the gasoline pump, experts say.The Israel-Hamas war is “definitely not good news” for oil markets already stretched by cutbacks in oil production from Saudi Arabia and Russia and expected stronger demand from China, the head of the International Energy Agency said.Markets will remain volatile, and the conflict could push oil prices higher, "which is definitely bad news for inflation,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based IEA, told The Associated Press. Developing countries that import oil and other fuels would be the most affected by higher prices, he said.International benchmark Brent crude traded above $91 a barrel on Thursday, up from $85 per barrel on Oct. 6, the day before Hamas attacked Israel, killing hundreds of civilians. Israel immediately launched airstrikes on Gaza, destroying entire neighborhoods and killing hundreds of Palestinian civilians in the days that have followed.Fluctuations since the attack pushed oil prices as high as $96. The price of oil depends on how much of it is getting used and how much is available. The latter is under threat because of the Hamas-Israel war, even though the Gaza Strip is not home to major crude production.One worry is that the fighting could lead to complications with Iran, home of some of the world’s largest oil reserves. Its crude production has been constrained by international sanctions, but oil is still flowing to China and other countries.“In order to get a sustained move (in prices), we really would need to see a supply disruption,” said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based consultant.Any damage to Iranian oil infrastructure from a military strike by Israel could send prices jumping globally. Even without that, a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that lies south of Iran could also shake the oil market because so much of the world’s supplies goes through the waterway.Until something like that happens, “the oil market is going to be like everyone else, monitoring the events in the Middle East,” Lipow said.One reason 1970s-style gas lines are unlikely: U.S. oil production is at an all-time high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, an arm of the Energy Department, reported that American oil production in the first week of October hit 13.2 million barrels per day, passing the previous record set in 2020 by 100,000 barrels. Weekly domestic oil production has doubled from the first week in October 2012 to now.“The energy crisis of 1973 taught us many things, but in my mind, the most critical is that American energy strength is a tremendous source of security, prosperity and freedom around the world,'' said Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, the U.S. oil industry's top lobbying group.In a speech Wednesday marking the 50th anniversary of the 1973 oil embargo, Sommers said current U.S. production contrasts sharply with “America’s weakened position during the Arab oil embargo.'' He urged U.S. policymakers to heed what he called the lessons of 1973.“We cannot squander our strategic advantage and retreat on energy leadership,'' said Sommers, who has repeatedly criticized President Joe Biden's policies restricting restricting new oil leases as part of Biden's efforts to slow global climate change.“With an unstable world, war in Europe, war in the Middle East, and energy demand outstripping supply, energy security is on the line,'' Sommers said in a speech at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank.“American oil and gas are needed now more than ever,'' Sommers said. “Let’s take to heart the lessons we learned from 1973 and avoid sowing the seeds of the next energy crisis.'' For now, the crisis isn’t a repeat of 1973. Arab countries aren’t attacking Israel in unison, and OPEC+ nations have not moved to restrict supplies or boost prices beyond a few extra dollars.There are several wild cards in the energy market. One is the supply of Iranian oil. Eager to avoid a spike in gasoline prices and inflation, the U.S. has quietly tolerated some exports of Iranian oil to destinations such as China instead of going all in on sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program. If Iran, which has warned Israel not to undertake a ground offensive, escalates the Gaza conflict — including a possible attack by Hezbollah militants in Lebanon supported by Iran — that might change the U.S. stance. “If the U.S. were then also to enforce the oil sanctions against Iran more strictly again, the oil market would tighten noticeably,” say commodities analysts at Commerzbank.Lawmakers from both parties have urged Biden to block Iranian oil sales, seeking to dry up one of the regime’s key sources of funding.Another wild card is how Saudi Arabia would respond if Iranian oil is restricted. Oil analysts say that while the Saudis may welcome recent oil price hikes, they don’t want a massive price spike that would fuel inflation, higher central bank interest rates and possible recession in oil-consuming countries that ultimately would limit or even kill off demand for oil. A third unknown is whether more oil will reach the market from Venezuela. The U.S. agreed Wednesday to temporarily suspend some sanctions on the country’s oil, gas and gold sectors after Venezuela’s government and a faction of its opposition formally agreed to work together on election reforms.Venezuelan production could increase in 2024. In the next six months, however, production could ramp up by some 200,000 barrels a day, a relative drop in the ocean, according to Sofia Guidi Di Sante, senior oil market analyst at Rystad Energy.Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, the top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, slammed the U.S. action as a “gimmick” that appeases a brutal regime in Venezuela. “Joe Biden’s energy policies put America last,'' Barrasso said, citing the Democratic president's decisions to kill the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline and sell off significant portions of the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking it to its lowest level since the 1980s. The Energy Department said Thursday it will seek offers to start refilling the oil reserve in December, with monthly solicitations expected through May 2024.“He eased sanctions on Iran, which funds terrorism across the Middle East. Now with Israel under attack, Biden is desperate for anything to mask the consequences of his reckless policies,'' Barrasso said. “America should never beg for oil from socialist dictators or terrorists.''The Treasury Department says it has targeted nearly 1,000 individuals and entities connected to terrorism and terrorist financing by the Iranian regime and its proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah and other groups in the region. "We will continue to take action as appropriate to counter Iran’s destabilizing activity in the region and around the world,” Treasury said in a statement.____McHugh reported from Frankfurt, Germany. Choe reported from New York.。    　　深圳8月13日电 题：华强北：APEC助推中国科技产品热　　记者周科、王丰、杨深深　　在深圳，一条全长不足千米的街道，正成为全球“科技扫货”的热门目的地。它就是华强北，被称为“中国电子第一街”。随着亚太经合组织（APEC）第三十三次领导人非正式会议的临近，这条街道的人气愈发旺盛。　　上午10时，赛格广场、电子科技大厦等专业市场人头攒动。不同肤色、不同语言的境外客商拖着行李箱穿梭于档口之间，询价、试戴、打包“一条龙”。华强北街道党工委书记陈炯文介绍，华强北日均客流量75万人次，每天接待外国人超8000人次，商户销售外贸占比普遍超过七成。

二 | 　　来自南非的扬维克·哈廷就是其中的一员。

三 | 　　哈廷在香港工作，此行专程抽了一天时间来深圳。“我今天大约10点抵达这里，计划下午4点左右离开。”他在华强北电子市场买了一块充电宝，还修好了自己的笔记本电脑和女儿的手表。　　吸引他的，不只是实惠的价格。“在这里几乎什么都能买到。”哈廷说。　　哈廷并非个例。

四 | 来自美国的布赖恩·拉莫特-阿里斯正忙着挑选无线耳机；韩国游客李海美和男友刚下飞机便直奔华强北；印度商人马尔·考永拖着行李箱走进电子科技大厦，一副AI眼镜让他停下了脚步……　　数据是热潮的最直接体现。

五 | 今年前7个月，华强北AI产品全品类销售额同比增长55%以上，其中AI眼镜销量激增100%，无人机、机器人销量增长60%至70%。　　这股“扫货”热潮背后，是多重因素的叠加发力。　　今年是APEC“中国年”。深圳作为今年APEC第三十三次领导人非正式会议的举办地，这里的机器人、AI眼镜、无人机、翻译耳机、3D打印设备、智能穿戴等高新科技产品，成为吸引海内外游客的闪亮名片。

六 | 不久前，成都已举办APEC数字和人工智能部长会议，通过了《2026年APEC数字和人工智能部长声明（成都声明）》。APEC各经济体数字化进程持续加快，对高算力、便携化智能终端需求旺盛。

七 | 　　深圳海关数据显示，2026年前两个月，深圳对APEC其他经济体出口自动数据处理设备及其零部件366.6亿元，同比增长6.1%。

八 | AI相关的电子元件、电脑零部件进出口同比增长37.1%，对深圳外贸增长贡献度达38.3%。　　政策红利也在持续释放。240小时过境免签政策全面落地，“离境退税2.0”将“即买即退”搬到了商场柜台，同时华强北系统推进国际化街区建设，完善了双语标识、外卡支付、离境退税等全链条配套。　　商户江小林在华强电子世界经营多年，他告诉记者：“对外国游客来说，华强北的产品性价比非常高，一般都是带着全家人过来买产品，很多人‘空手来、满箱走’。”　　更关键的是华强北自身的产业能级跃升。在这片1.45平方公里的土地上，集聚着35家专业市场、超11.5万家经营主体，向全球供应超百万种电子元器件和消费类电子产品。

九 | “以往，外国游客来华强北更多是采购电子配件，现在智能机器人、AI穿戴设备、智能小家电等消费类电子产品备受外国游客青睐。”智品库联合创始人蒙杭方说。　　如今，华强北跑出了“上午设计、下午打样、次日量产、一周出海”的科创速度。最新数据显示，华强北电子产品出口覆盖全球190多个国家和地区，全年发出的超10亿件快递中，四成发往海外。“线上种草、线下体验、全球采购、跨境销售”的新模式正在华强北加速成形。　　哈廷从华强北出来时，手里提着“新宝贝”，坏掉的“老伙计”也满血复活。“我和我的家人还会再来。”他一脸满足地说。　　借助APEC东风，华强北让更多“中国智造”从这里出发，走向亚太，走向世界。

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